TCO - The Bear Market

The Beer: The Liberty Ale is ready for the secondary fermenter. The Pale Ale still needs some time to condition, but is very good. I'll try another in about a week. I've had two people ask me to teach them to brew. There's really nothing to it, but I love to teach. And drink beer.

The Bicycle: I got home early enough to take the Madone out for 20 miles. I can tell it's been a while, but it was nice to get back out. I'm a little saddle sore and have some muscles that are a little concerned about the recent activity (considering how slothful I've been all winter), but otherwise it went well. Looks to be at least a couple weeks before I can go again. And yes, it's much "cooler near the Lake". I'd forgotten how painful it can be to have exposed fingers at 39 degrees.

The VRWC: For those of you who think this economy belongs to Bush, think again. The most telling statement is this:

“It’s the Obama bear market,” said Dan Veru, who helps oversee $2.8 billion at Palisade Capital Management in Fort Lee, New Jersey. “We don’t know what the rules are in so many different areas the government is touching.” (emphasis mine)

The markets abhor uncertainty. Further tax policy influences what people do with their money. If capital gains are going to increase, why would anyone want to put money in an uncertain stock market?

“Obama should be listening to the stock market more than talking to it,” said Kenneth Fisher, the billionaire chairman of Woodside, California-based Fisher Investments Inc., which oversees $22 billion. “He hasn’t gotten out of the gate well.”

It should be clear by now that every time someone from this administration speaks, the market tanks. You can argue, "they're the rich, they got us into this and they deserve it" and that may be partly true. But there are legions of others who are innocent of wrongdoing and are losing everything they have.

This belongs to TCO and the Democrats may pay dearly come election time. There is no indication things are going to improve in the next 2-4 years. I base this on conversations with people I know in manufacturing for equipment with very long lead times. Orders have been cancelled with a complete loss of any down payment and the buyer didn't bat an eye. The recession is so broad-based, it's even hitting lawyers (you laugh-I've never see a recession hit the law profession).

And Geithner...oh, that's for another post.