Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Clueless On Egypt?

The Beer:  Bad Santa, American Wheat and Belgian Tripel are all bottled and ready.  I even had some Duvel bottles for  the Tripel.

The Bicycle:  It's zero degrees F this morning.  I'm not even thinking bicycle.

The VRWC:  The lack of experience in the Administration is looming large.  The response to the crisis in Egypt has been lackluster at best.  But what is more troubling is the appearance of not connecting (or even trying to connect) the dots.  

I am not at all convinced that this is just a popular uprising in support of democratic rule.  The rise of a (somewhat) democratic order in Iraq may be influencing other countries as intended, but I see the potential for another scenario - Iran.

Iran has made no secret of their desire to establish a 21st Century Caliphate.  This is similar to the desire of the old Soviet Union to establish a worldwide sphere of influence by  fomenting revolution in third world countries, thereby giving the Soviets a foothold from which to export Marxism to the west (though gone, the Soviet influence lingers - but that's a topic for later). The Soviets used "5th column" tactics that is, they would send outside agitators to these countries to orchestrate protests and riots against the existing government.  In many cases, guerrillas were trained and equipped for warfare. I see similar tactics at work in the Middle East and North Africa.  Orchestrate popular protests.  If they don't topple the government, the next step becomes a guerrilla terror war.

I have zero evidence for this, only a gut feeling.  We will see how this unfolds, but I believe in the end we may well see a Caliphate extending from Turkey, through the Levant, encompassing the Saudi peninsula and North Africa to Morocco.  Of which I am certain, the Administration is not even considering this possibility.  That is a blunder from which we may not recover.

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