Saturday, May 26, 2012

The Polls Don't Make Sense

I've been digging into the presidential polls a little and I see some things that don't add up.

  • Starting at the top, RCP average has Obama leading Romney by 1.6% (45.4-43.8).  That is consistent with the Obama approval rating (essentially 48-48).  But when I start to look a the other numbers, it just doesn't add up.
  • Direction of the Country is not in the Democrat's favor.  33.8%-58.5% say the country is on the wrong track.  This is RCP average, but it is fairly consistent across all polls.
  • Congressional Job Approval is just 14.6% (RCP avg....FOX poll shows lowest at 12%).  One can argue that Republican recalcitrance (that is your 25-cent word of the day) is the cause.  But it's not reflected in the Generic Ballot Ballot.  Rasmussen and USA Today/Gallup show the GOP up big, file the Democrat-leaning pollsters Democracy Corps and Quinnipiac show Democrats up slightly.  RCP average again showing GOP candidates up 1.6%.
  • While economic confidence is up, it is still a dismal view.  And the number appears to have plateaued.

Nearly everything points to a huge defeat for Democrats and RINOs, but the Presidential polling doesn't show it.  All I can come up with here is that the voters confuse personal likability with "Job Approval".  Or the voters have lost their minds. 

What say you?

1 comment:

Dad29 said...

I think it's still early; many folks are not fixed on the election yet.